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Shipping Review & Outlook : Dry bulk

  This article is based on the earlier research works of Mr. Daejin Lee to explain the recent trend of the shipping market with a special focus on dry bulk. Shipping is 'Pigs or Chickens'? 'Shipping is just like the country market. By the time the farmer arrives at market with his pig and finds that all the other farmers have bred pigs, it is too late. Price will fall, and the farmer, who has feed bills to pay must accept the price on offer. But this situation was created a year earlier when prices were high and everyone started breeding pigs. The smart farmers saw what other farmers were doing and switched to chickens. This has nothing to do with what the demand for pigs or chickens. It is a supply-side management. We conclude that, like the farmer, the successful shipping company must know when to steer clear of pigs!' * The story of 'Chicken and Pigs' is one of the best parts I have read in 'Maritime economics'. Bad investments often flow from...

A Thanksgiving for shipping

The dry bulk market first experienced the worst ever freight market in recent memory but then tripled in a matter of months. Tankers have seen their rates halved, and limited interest for secondary market acquisitions and relatively weak prices. The containership market saw a government-blessed entity (Hanjin) go belly up, which pretty much by itself sums the state of the market; also, seven-year old panamax containerships these days are heading to the scrapyard. Finally, the offshore market has seen brand-new, top-tier drillships idling while another huge oil discovery in Texas has made offshore drilling an even more precarious proposition. However, with the spirit of being thankful upon us, for the ‘harvest’ the industry has had this year and the overall results accomplished (mostly intangible results), one has to be hopeful and even thankful for the shipping industry’s prospects. The drop of the market, especially in the dry bulk, has been the first time that peo...

Moving towards smart shipping

WISTA UK has said that smart ships are likely to be carrying cargoes within 10 years but all in the logistics chain need to adapt in order to make good use of the new technology and the huge amount of data that will be available as a result. According to Sue Terpilowski, President of WISTA UK – the Women’s International Shipping & Trading Association UK – shipping will go from a “poor beginning” in terms of generating and using data to be at the forefront of new technology. All thanks to customer demand. Ms Terpilowski, who is also Managing Director of Image Line Communications, said the change would see “talking” ships within 10 years. “Even the paint will be able to tell you about the waves hitting the ship. These ships are going to be telling you about the weight and the stresses on deck when slow steaming would be appropriate and many more operational elements. There are many opportunities for the industry, but is it ready to take advantage?” And she continued: “Ship i...

Shipping Stock Rally Raises Interest (and Questions)

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) – Shares of U.S. shipping companies shot higher again on Wednesday, causing volatility halts in a number of stocks and raising questions among investors and analysts over the extent of their sharp post-election rally. The jump in share prices and unusually heavy trading volume even surprised analysts who follow the stocks, although some said the gains appeared to result in part from optimism that commodity demand would increase under President-elect Donald Trump. At the center of the rally has been DryShips Inc, an $82.9 million market-capitalization company that has been halted for volatility in recent sessions and is up about 1,500 percent since its close on the Nov. 8 Election Day. The stock was halted again on Wednesday, and Nasdaq requested additional information from the company. Shares of Diana Containerships Inc, Globus Maritime Ltd and Pangaea Logistics Sol Ltd also were halted multiple times for volatility. A stock’s outsized...

Alphaliner: Panamax Exodus Set to Continue

Over 100 more classic Panamaxes would need to be scrapped in the coming months to re-balance supply and demand, and reduce the total pool to less than 470 units, compared to 670 units four years ago, according to Alphaliner. Only such a drastic reduction could elevate rates from their current all-time lows of USD 4,200 – USD 4,500 per day, with positive side effects on the 2,700 – 3,800 TEU size bracket as well. Hard decisions have to be taken, such as scrapping ten-year-old ships on the eve of their second Classification Special Survey. Since many cash-short owners can’t afford the survey-related costs, such vessels are being laid up, sold for scrap, or sold to bargain buyers at distressed prices. Since the opening of the new Panama Canal locks on 26 June, no fewer than 120 classic Panamax ships, referring to vessels of 4,000-5,300 TEU on a 13 row/32.30 m beam, have been displaced from trans-Panama routes. “The exodus is set to continue, with a further 30-40 cl...

MSI: Dry Bulk Market Heading Into a Firm Festive Season

After a steady fall in average daily TCE spot earnings in October, November saw an inflection point for Capesizes as the dry bulk market is sailing into a firm festive season, swiftly followed by a New Year comedown, according to research and consultancy firm Maritime Strategies International (MSI). With rates soaring to over USD 16,000 per day, the Capesizes saw their highest rates since mid-2015. Some of this strength has translated to the Panamax market, although Supramax and Handysize earnings have been broadly unaffected. A basket of key commodity prices, including iron ore, coking and steam coal, have surged in recent weeks, with falls in domestic supplies in China a key driver. This trend is forecast to continue through the fourth quarter but weaker iron ore and coal trade will impact Capesize and Panamax demand in the near term. “The Capesize market is demonstrating what might be termed ‘frothy’ characteristics with patches of strong chartering despite wea...

How to carry bulk cargoes safely?

When bulk cargoes shift, liquefy, catch fire or explode due to poor loading procedures, the consequences can be critical – ships could capsize, lose stability or sustain severe structural damage. Occasioned by this kind of incidents the UK P&I Club has offered some good advice regarding the safe carrying of bulk cargoes. According to the Club, precautions need to be taken before accepting solid bulk cargoes for shipment. Crew members have to be warned of possible liquefaction properties of bauxite (which was considered until recently a cargo not liable to liquefaction) as well as be advised on the issue of cargo residues deemed harmful to the marine environment; the changes to the IMSBC Code’s structure; and SOLAS mandatory enclosed space entry and rescue drills. IMO Resolution MSC.393(95) introduced amendments (03-15) to the International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code enter into force on 1 January, 2017, and could be implemented voluntarily from 1 January, 2016. “...

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